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La d\u00e9cision de Monsieur Berlusconi de se pr\u00e9senter au suffrage populaire avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 un \u00e9moi particulier sur les march\u00e9s en novembre 2012. Les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019hier (25 f\u00e9vrier 2012) justifient une perturbation instantan\u00e9e d\u00e9j\u00e0 redout\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, et repositionnent le march\u00e9 \u00e0 ses niveaux de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e 2012.<\/p>\n
Notre point de vue relativement aux \u00e9volutions possibles se base sur deux grands canaux d\u2019analyse :<\/p>\n
1\/ l\u2019un est quantitatif. Dans nos signaux d\u2019interaction suivis en continu, les niveaux d\u2019intensit\u00e9 et de risque restent dans un couloir \u00e9troit depuis d\u00e9j\u00e0 cinq jours ; Pas de diffusion \u00e0 la France et \u00e0 l\u2019Allemagne de la situation italienne, la r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s n\u2019engage aucun retour de protections via les instruments synth\u00e9tiques notamment.<\/p>\n
2\/ l\u2019autre est discr\u00e9tionnaire. La r\u00e9conciliation des \u00e9l\u00e9ments techniques aux \u00e9l\u00e9ments fondamentaux milite pour une stabilisation de la pression apr\u00e8s cette r\u00e9action \u00e9pidermique. Cette stabilisation sera le reflet du soutien toujours ferme de la BCE. Les banquiers centraux restent dans la position d\u2019acheteurs de dernier ressort et continuent en somme de donner du temps pour inverser la dynamique du d\u00e9ficit.<\/p>\n
La question reste pour nous ax\u00e9e sur la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une inflexion du cycle \u00e9conomique mondial pour des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s majoritairement internationalis\u00e9es, dans des r\u00e9gimes o\u00f9 les banques centrales garantissent la liquidit\u00e9 des instruments de dettes gouvernementales pour une r\u00e9duction dans un temps supportable des d\u00e9ficits publics.<\/p>\n
Cette nouvelle manifestation d\u2019inqui\u00e9tude ne remet donc pas en cause notre allocation d\u2019actifs et prouve une nouvelle fois l\u2019\u00e9tanch\u00e9it\u00e9 apparente des risques souverains d\u2019un pays \u00e0 l\u2019autre.<\/p>\n
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Consultez nos 3 derni\u00e8res actualit\u00e9s<\/p>\n
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