{"id":6548,"date":"2019-09-18T16:19:49","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T15:19:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ginjer-am.com\/?p=6548"},"modified":"2019-09-18T16:19:49","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T15:19:49","slug":"preambule-au-5-15-du-16-aout-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ginjer-am.com\/en\/news\/preambule-au-5-15-du-16-aout-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"***Pr\u00e9ambule au 5\/15 du 16 ao\u00fbt 2019***"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section bb_built=”1″ fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” next_background_color=”#e8e8e8″][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial” width=”80%” max_width=”1024px”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ custom_padding__hover=”|||” custom_padding=”|||”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.27.4″ text_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”text_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” text_text_shadow_vertical_length=”text_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” text_text_shadow_blur_strength=”text_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” link_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”link_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” link_text_shadow_vertical_length=”link_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” link_text_shadow_blur_strength=”link_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”ul_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” ul_text_shadow_vertical_length=”ul_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” ul_text_shadow_blur_strength=”ul_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”ol_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” ol_text_shadow_vertical_length=”ol_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” ol_text_shadow_blur_strength=”ol_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”quote_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” quote_text_shadow_vertical_length=”quote_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” quote_text_shadow_blur_strength=”quote_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_2_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_2_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_2_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_3_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_3_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_3_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_4_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_4_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_4_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_5_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_5_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_5_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”header_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=”0px” header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length=”header_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=”0px” header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength=”header_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93″ header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=”1px” box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=”0px” box_shadow_vertical_tablet=”0px” box_shadow_blur_tablet=”40px” box_shadow_spread_tablet=”0px” z_index_tablet=”500″]<\/p>\n

***Pr\u00e9ambule au 5\/15 du 16 ao\u00fbt 2019***<\/strong><\/p>\n

Il y a \u00e0 peine 10 mois, les investisseurs s\u2019affolaient de voir les taux longs am\u00e9ricains monter fortement et par voie de cons\u00e9quence, ils engageaient les march\u00e9s actions dans la violente glissade de fin 2018: tout \u00e9tait \u00e9crit, la r\u00e9cession \u00e9tait l\u00e0…<\/p>\n

D\u00e9but 2019, surprise! La r\u00e9cession est remise \u00e0 plus tard, les actions rebondissent fortement, le pire n\u2019\u00e9tant pas certain.<\/p>\n

Mais rien n\u2019y fait, la peur depuis le d\u00e9but de la guerre commerciale est en toile de fond, cr\u00e9ant des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes auto-validants en portant les investisseurs vers des actifs de moins en moins liquides, achet\u00e9s \u00e0 n\u2019importe quel prix…les march\u00e9s financiers ont aussi chang\u00e9 de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9-l\u00e0.<\/p>\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, dans des march\u00e9s creux, c\u2019est l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la baisse des taux longs qui auto-valide l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n

Greenspan en son temps, Yellen il y a peu, ont bien essay\u00e9 de monter au cr\u00e9neau pour sugg\u00e9rer que les march\u00e9s financiers ont chang\u00e9 (cf. article les Echos Investir du 15\/08\/2019), que les statistiques li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inversion de la courbe des taux sont inutilisables (plus li\u00e9es au mouvement moutonnier qu\u2019\u00e0 une quelconque anticipation, tout comme c\u2019est le cas pour la volatilit\u00e9 depuis quelques ann\u00e9es).<\/p>\n

Mais rien n\u2019y fait. Dans la panique, la peur est plus forte que la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du risque.<\/p>\n

Depuis 8 ans, nous avons toujours dit que nous serions incapables de quantifier la peur: 2%, 10%, 15%, … impossible de savoir jusqu\u2019o\u00f9 les march\u00e9s iront, surtout quand on a des signaux contradictoires. Mais \u00e0 chaque fois, nous avons annonc\u00e9 des krachs haussiers \u00e0 venir. Nos balises, qui sont bas\u00e9es sur des crit\u00e8res innovants permettant de prendre en compte les changements qui ont profond\u00e9ment modifi\u00e9 les march\u00e9s financiers ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, ont bien mesur\u00e9, non pas la peur mais la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du risque (l\u2019Espagne en 2012 (pas de risque), Chypre, puis les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents (pas de risque), puis le Shutdown am\u00e9ricain (pas de risque) en 2013, l\u2019Ukraine\/Russie en 2014 (pas de risque), la Gr\u00e8ce, puis la Chine en 2015 (pas de risque), le Brexit (pas de risque), puis les \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines (pas de risque) en 2016, etc.).<\/p>\n

Alors, aujourd\u2019hui, face \u00e0 tant d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements anxiog\u00e8nes qu\u2019en est-il?<\/p>\n

Cette fois encore, les balises ne s\u2019affolent pas, sugg\u00e9rant une nouvelle exag\u00e9ration des peurs. En effet, des solutions existent pour maintenir la croissance en t\u00f4le ondul\u00e9e dans une zone basse, certes, mais suffisante, comme depuis 8 ans. Cela suffira \u00e0 faire rebondir tr\u00e8s fortement les march\u00e9s actions.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est le moment de se hedger face \u00e0 la peur!<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” transparent_background=”off” background_color=”#e8e8e8″ allow_player_pause=”off” inner_shadow=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” padding_mobile=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” make_equal=”off” use_custom_gutter=”off” gutter_width=”3″ custom_padding_tablet=”50px|0|50px|0″ custom_padding_last_edited=”on|desktop” inner_width=”auto” inner_max_width=”1024px” prev_background_color=”#ffffff” next_background_color=”#c8b8d5″][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial” width=”80%” max_width=”1024px”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ custom_padding__hover=”|||” custom_padding=”|||”][et_pb_text background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”center” text_font=”Oswald||||” text_font_size=”30″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” custom_margin=”40px||40px|” module_alignment=”center” _builder_version=”3.27.4″]<\/p>\n

Consultez nos 3 derni\u00e8res actualit\u00e9s<\/p>\n

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